Our November weather has been warm and dry through the middle of the month. The weather pattern is about to shift. The pattern shift will also bring colder temperatures and snowflakes as we move closer to Thanksgiving.

It has been a dry month

So far, the month of November has been dry with only 0.03 inches of rainfall to date (11/16/2023). The only measurable rainfall took place on the first day of the month.

The dry streak is about to end as a cold front moves in to end our week. Colder temperatures will move in for the weekend.

A soaking rain is on the way

The cold front moving through our area Friday will help produce rainfall into the afternoon and evening.

The rain will add up to around 0.50 inches in some locations before tapering off Friday night.

This will be the biggest rain so far this month.

A colder weekend weather forecast expected

The weekend will turn colder behind the cold front with highs only in the middle to upper 40s. This weekend will feel cooler, but it is actually closer to normal for this time of the year.

Below-normal temperatures will return just in time for Thanksgiving.

Thanksgiving week weather forecast

Temperatures will be near normal to start your Thanksgiving week. The normal temperatures will turn colder through the week with below-normal temperatures expected through the end of the week.

The colder air moving in will also help produce lake effect snow for areas south and east of the Great Lakes.

A large storm system will develop early in the week and push rain showers and the chance for thunderstorms into the region on Tuesday. This storm will pull the coldest air of the season in behind it into Wednesday and Thursday, just in time for Thanksgiving.

As the storm approaches, you can track the rain on our Youngstown weather radar.

Will it snow for Thanksgiving?

The cold air will help produce lake effect snow showers across the snowbelt.

The heaviest snow is expected to stay in the northern snowbelt as the wind flow off Lake Erie will be from the west. This will provide a west to east fetch and keep the heaviest snow to the north along the shore of Lake Erie and along I-90 in NE Ohio and NW Pennsylvania.

If you are planning on traveling toward the extreme corner of NE Ohio, NW Pennsylvania (Around Erie) and toward Buffalo, New York, you will want to pay close attention to the forecast as we get closer to your travel dates next week. The heavier snow threat will be in these locations during the Thanksgiving holiday.

The snow will not be as heavy in the southern snowbelt as the wind flow will keep the heaviest bands north.

The forecast will still be cold for the holiday, and a few snowflakes are expected in the southern snowbelt as well as south of the snowbelt.

The 7 day forecast will show you how cold we will turn.