Hit-and-miss storms, heat, and humidity ahead this weekend; watching for Ida impacts next week


A few isolated downpours or thunderstorms are possible tonight. It will remain warm and humid with lows around 70°. Patchy fog is possible again across the area.

We can put the forecast on repeat through the weekend with little change in the overall pattern. Morning fog is possible Saturday and a stray morning shower or storm is also on the table. A better chance for some hit-and-miss downpours and thunderstorms will be in the afternoon through early evening. Any storms that can develop have the potential to produce heavy rainfall and cause localized flash flooding. The day will feature sunshine with scattered clouds around. Temperatures will return to the upper 80s to around 90° for highs. Heat indices as high as the middle to upper 90s are expected.

Saturday Night
Much like the last several nights, a low chance remains for a stray shower or thunderstorm overnight. Skies will be partly to mostly clear and patchy fog is possible. It will remain warm and humid. Temperatures drop to around 70° for overnight lows.

More of the same Sunday. A stray morning shower or storm is possible with scattered clouds and some fog at sunrise. Temperatures warm quickly with sun and scattered clouds around. Highs approach the upper 80s to around 90° and the humidity remains high. This will lead to heat indices in the middle to near upper 90s through the afternoon. Spotty downpours and thunderstorms develop around the region for the afternoon and evening. Any storms may produce heavy rainfall capable of causing localized flash flooding.

The pattern does begin to change a bit Sunday night. An approaching cold front will keep a higher chance for some spotty rain and storms in the forecast Sunday night. A lot more clouds are also expected as the front begins to push into the area. Lows will be around 70°.

A cold front arrives Monday and will bring more widespread showers, storms and cloud coverage. Temperatures will be a little cooler Monday, in the lower to mid-80s.

Tuesday and Wednesday is where the forecast turns much more uncertain as we will be watching for potential impacts from Hurricane Ida. That system will make landfall as a major hurricane on the Gulf coast at the end of this weekend, then start pushing inland early into the week. It will pull tropical moisture inland, from the Gulf, and the track the storm takes will determine how far north that moisture goes. The system will also have an impact on how quickly Monday’s cold front settles south of the area.

The latest data coming in this evening continues to suggest the storm makes an eastward turn toward the Carolinas Monday. That would be the better scenario for the Valley as it would keep a lot of the tropical moisture to our south and would give a better chance for nicer weather Wednesday. However, some of the data suggests a more northward track which would result in a cloudier and potentially wetter Wednesday. The forecast will depend heavily on the exact track of Ida, so you will want to monitor Tuesday and Wednesday for potential changes to the forecast. Current thinking is for the cold front to still be in the region Tuesday, keeping clouds in the area and an elevated risk for scattered rain and storms. I am leaving the chance for rain in the forecast Wednesday but if the eastward trend in the models continues, we would be looking at better weather and will be able to lower or remove the chance for rain. By Thursday, Ida will be out of the picture for us and we are looking at a cooler end to the week with some sun.

For a detailed breakdown of the next seven days, click play on the video above.

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