Strong to severe storms possible late afternoon into tonight
Today is looking like an active weather day for the area. We will have an increase in clouds this morning and some morning showers and rumbles of thunder developing mid to late-morning. The risk for rain and increase in clouds comes from a decaying complex of storms from our northwest. This will not come with much of a severe threat, encountering still somewhat dry air, which will try to choke off the storms. The remnants of that storm complex exit the area early this afternoon. At that time we get back into some sunshine, will see a big jump in temperatures and will also see a big spike in dew points building into the area. This will be the energy booster for the strong to severe storm risk.
The temperatures will approach the mid-80s during the afternoon. Additional rain and thunderstorms will become increasingly more likely mainly after 4 p.m. Between 4 p.m. and midnight, scattered storms are likely, any of which may be strong to severe. The greatest threat will be storms capable of severe wind gusts. However, all severe modes are on the table today. Isolated rotating storms, capable of producing an isolated tornado are possible. We will also have to watch for storms capable of producing large hail. Localized flash flooding is also possible as any stronger storms will produce heavy rainfall.
The risk for severe storms starts to drop off later in the evening, with showers and thunderstorms becoming more isolated by midnight. It will stay humid and warm overnight with lows in the mid-60s.
Isolated strong to severe storms possible, especially early through mid-afternoon
Saturday will remain unsettled with humid and warm weather continuing. Highs reach the lower to mid-80s and dew points will be elevated again. Isolated rain or thunderstorms are possible in the morning. Expect another round of scattered rain and storms to develop into the afternoon, a few of which may be a little strong. Storms capable of producing strong wind gusts are possible through the evening.
The chance for stronger storms will fade through the late-evening and rain chances fade into the night. Any overnight rain is looking isolated. Expect scattered clouds and it will remain a tad muggy. Lows will be in the middle to lower 60s.
Father’s Day (Sunday)
Skies will be partly sunny Sunday and temperatures will be warm. It remains humid for the day with highs in the mid-80s. It won’t be a washout, but we are going to have to keep an eye out for an isolated shower or storm in the afternoon and evening. Sunday night will be humid and warm with lows back into the middle to upper 60s. Expect scattered clouds through the night.
The next cold front arrives early next week, bringing another up-tick in rain chances early in the week. Monday will be warm and humid with highs in the middle to near upper 80s. Skies start off partly sunny but clouds increase into the afternoon, with rain and storms developing into the evening. Rain and storms are likely into Monday night and continue through Tuesday morning as the cold front sweeps through the area. Tuesday starts off with clouds and showers, followed by skies becoming partly sunny in the afternoon. It will turn cooler again for both Tuesday and Wednesday. Highs Tuesday drop to the lower 70s. Lows Tuesday night return to the 40s and highs Wednesday will only be around 70. We will have another night in the 40s Wednesday into Thursday before temperatures start warming back up.
For a detailed breakdown of the next seven days, click play on the video above.