Confidence continues growing in an extreme heat wave setting up for much of the central U.S. for the start of Aug. Impacts are expected in the Valley with the potential to reach or exceed our hottest temperatures of the year so far. The hottest high temperature this year has been a high of 94° and we hit that twice in 2022. Highs have been in the 90s for seven days so far in 2022.
More heat is likely next week. The current 6-10 day climate outlook from the Climate Prediction Center has our area under the 80% chance of above-average temperatures. That’s the highest percentile used on that outlook. The outlook below is from Friday and is valid for the dates Aug. 4 – Aug. 8.
When will the hot weather arrive in the Youngstown area and how hot will it be?
Strom Team 27 is closely monitoring the pattern setting up for the region next week. A brief cold front passes through the area Tuesday and comes with a risk for some rain and storms Monday into Tuesday. Behind that system comes a big change in the pattern. A large upper-level ridge is expected to build into the Central Plains mid-week. That dome of high pressure will help pump heat into the central and eastern US. It slowly builds to the east into the latter part of next week. Both longer-range models, the GFS and the Euro are picking up on this pattern.
The result will be some extreme heat across the Central Plains states. The dome of heat is also expected to impact the Mahoning and Shenango Valleys. There are some subtle differences in the data. The GFS is much more aggressive with extreme heat in the northern Central Plains. It also suggests cooler weather in our region Friday with a potential cold front and accompanying thunderstorms. The Euro does not bring that cold front through the area and suggests warmer temperatures persist into the first weekend of Aug. Below is a look at potential highs across the country for late next week on both models.
While there are some differences, the agreement remains on hot weather for the entire central and eastern U.S. We expect the heat to start moving in Wednesday and continue into late next week. This is the current seven-day temperature outlook.
How long does the heat last and will it approach dangerous levels?
While high heat is likely through the end of the upcoming week, we will be monitoring long-range data and the upper air pattern to see how long it sticks around. The current expectation is for a very hot start for Aug. overall. The Climate Prediction Center’s 8-14 day outlook on Friday, valid for the dates Aug. 6 – Aug. 12, keeps the Youngstown area in the 60% chance of above average temperatures for that time period.
Current model data suggests hot weather is likely through at least the first weekend in August. But the potential for hot weather continuing into the second week of August is also on the table.
The pattern setting up would also suggest high dew points accompanying the hot weather. The GFS model shows dew points approaching the 70s in the region on days where highs are likely to reach the 90s. That would lead to a heat index, of the “feels-like,” temperatures potentially approaching the triple digits. At that range, advisories for heat are possible as it can become dangerous. Our bodies are not able to cool themselves as easily when dew points are high because our bodies rely on sweat to evaporate to cool the body. Sweat can’t evaporate as easily in high dew points because it means there is a high level of moisture already in the air.
Stay updated on the latest Youngstown Area Weather Forecast. You will also want to pay attention to advisories for heat through next weekend. Plan strenuous outdoor work for cooler parts of the day is possible. Have plenty of water on hand for any events and take frequent breaks to cool down on hot days. We will keep you updated through the week on air and here at WKBN.com.